Emmys 2011: TVLine Previews The Lead Drama Actor Race — Including Our 6 Dream Nominees

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Tom Selleck, Blue BloodsA nomination for the CBS cop drama's patriarch just makes sense. His show’s a hit, he’s impressive on it, and voters love him. He’s been up for Emmys seven times before, but hasn’t taken home the prize since 1984 (for Magnum, P.I.).

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Ray Romano, Men of a Certain AgeDuring the storied run of Everybody Loves Raymond, this former stand-up was nominated for multiple Emmys as a performer, writer and producer. In 2002, he even won for Lead Actor in a Comedy Series. But now he’s in the drama game with TNT's Men, and though impressive, at this early stage it’s likely not everyone loves Raymond quite as well for that.

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Bill Paxton, Big LoveIt’s hard to fathom, given the quality of his work as Big Love’s polygamist hubby, but this actor’s never been nominated for an Emmy. If HBO wants to right that wrong, it could do worse than to point out to voters that, with the show — and Bill Henrickson — now deceased, this is their last chance to show Big Love at least a little love.

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Timothy Olyphant, JustifiedIf Emmy voters check out the acclaimed FX drama, they’ll be blown away by pistol-packin’ Raylan Givens’ portrayer. And even though he’s never been nominated before and the series isn’t quite an “it” drama (a la Mad Men), we remain cautiously optimistic that enough voters will tip their hats in his direction.

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Holt McCallany, Lights OutEveryone who saw FX’s Lights Out agreed that the star of the boxing drama gave a knockout performance. Unfortunately... there were only about four people who saw it. And, since the cabler pulled the plug on the show after its first season, a post-mortem nomination that puts McCallany into the ring seems highly unlikely.

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Stephen Moyer, True BloodMuch in the same way that The Walking Dead will have to convince Emmy voters that it’s more than just “that zombie show,” HBO's True Blood must convince them that it’s not just “that vampire show.” One thing we know for sure: Moyer's strong work opposite Dennis O’Hare certainly makes him deserving.

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WIlliam H. Macy, ShamelessAlthough Macy is an Emmy favorite — he’s been nominated six times and won in 2003 (for TNT’s Door to Door) — his dysfunctional family drama may be flying a little too far under the radar. But considering the marketing muscle Showtime is putting behind the show and its stars, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Emmy could be shopping at Macy’s.

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Donal Logue, TerriersWith Terriers already canceled by FX, it won’t just be tough for the P.I. drama’s leading man to score a nod -- it’ll be downright impossible. After all, how hard will the cabler possibly push to get recognition for an actor from a show it axed after its freshman season?

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Andrew Lincoln, The Walking DeadAMC has a hard sell on its hands convincing Emmy voters to see The Walking Dead as its fans do, as a human drama with emotive actors and not just a creepshow with hungry zombies. But if any performance is likely to do the trick, it’s Lincoln's; he is the series’ (thankfully still-beating) heart.

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Denis Leary, Rescue MeFX's firefighter drama lost little, if any, of its bite in its next-to-last season. But what it has lost is buzz. So though the show’s leading man remains as good at starting fires as his character is at putting them out, it doesn’t look like the alarm will sound for him to receive his fourth Lead Actor in a Drama Series nod (and his first since 2008).

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Hugh Laurie, HouseThough he’s been nominated five — count ’em, five! — times for his iconic portrayal of the Fox smash's titular grump, he’s never taken home the gold. “What’s it gonna take?” he must have asked himself. “Continued brilliant work, which you’ve done,” we might answer. (That, and the fact that Bad boy Bryan Cranston can’t hog the trophy again this year.)

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Peter Krause, ParenthoodThough the actor is an Emmy favorite — he was nominated three times for Six Feet Under — his sophomore NBC series still hasn’t really broken through. Therefore, the odds of his returning to the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series race this year are not great.

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Jeremy Irons, The BorgiasAs if it weren’t enough that this illustrious Brit is pitch-perfect on Showtime’s period drama, he also has a long and illustrious history with Emmy: He’s been getting nominated for various projects since the ’80s, and has won twice already.

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Charlie Hunnam, Sons of AnarchyFX’s biker drama is not for everyone — and is arguably a better show for it. The trouble is, when it comes to the Emmys, it needs voters to not only check it out but get into it in order for deserving cast members like Hunnam to be recognized. Odds are, he’ll be left on the sidelines cheering for co-star Katey Sagal, a more widely known actor and a safer bet for a nod.

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Jon Hamm, Mad MenCombine “The Suitcase” episode’s unforgettable pas de deux between Don Draper and Peggy Olson with Breaking Bad star Bryan Cranston’s ineligibility for a 2011 nod, and the (m)ad man’s portrayer might finally win not only his first Emmy, but the first for any performer on the AMC hit. The three-time contender probably has a nomination in the bag.

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Michael C. Hall, DexterBy now, Hall's name is all but a given when the list of Emmy nominees is read — he’s earned nods the last three years. (He also netted one back in 2001, for Six Feet Under.) So the question isn’t so much will he get in the race this year, as “Will this be the year that he wins it?”

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Nathan Fillion, CastleBy now, Castle is an established hit and its leading man, well known and loved (thanks to everything from Firefly to Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog). But he remains a bit of a long shot for an Emmy nod, given that he hasn’t been nominated since 1996 (and that was for a Daytime Emmy).

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Jason Clarke, The Chicago CodeHe may have made Chicago Code’s Jarek Wysocki the most complex cop since The Shield’s Vic Mackey, but Fox still yanked the drama after only a single season. In doing so, the network probably reduced his chances of being acknowledged by Emmy for his work from slim to none.

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Kyle Chandler, Friday Night LightsFinally, in 2010, the FNL anchor broke into the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series race. Now, with the beloved show and its stars competing for the final time, the pressure is on both NBC and DirecTV to see that their praises don’t go unsung. Chandler’s already done his part: He was brilliant.

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Gabriel Byrne, In TreatmentThe HBO shrink drama got its leading man nominated for an Emmy in 2008 and ’09. But while his performances weren’t any less compelling this year, the hoopla surrounding the show (since canceled as a regular series) has died down. Unless HBO goes all out, his chances of a nod this time around seem slim.

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Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk EmpireThough both highly acclaimed and well attended, Empire has been kind of a quiet hit for HBO — at least quieter than, say, The Sopranos. However, the one thing everybody has talked about, long and loudly, is how great this Sopranos alum is as Nucky Thompson. As anyone who watches the Atlantic City-set drama can tell you, there are few sure bets, but his getting a nod is one of 'em.

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Matt Bomer, White CollarIt would be easy to write off the former soap star as just another pretty face. But it would also be a mistake: He’s actually damn good on White Collar, a fact that USA’s Emmy campaign is determined to drive home to voters. Whether it works, he’s probably the cabler’s best bet for a nod.

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Sean Bean, Game of ThronesAs worthy as the Thrones star may be, he faces an uphill battle winning an Emmy nomination. Not only is his name not quite a household one, but HBO’s knight-time drama was so densely plotted that it turned off some viewers and, possibly, voters as well.

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Simon Baker, The MentalistAfter being nominated for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series in 2009, the charming actor was passed over the following year. Despite CBS’ best campaign efforts, voters are likely to overlook his charms again when nods are announced July 14.

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