Dancing With The Stars: Who Stands The Best Chance Of Winning Season 31?

Just two hours into Dancing With the Stars' new season, Jason Lewis' hopes of winning the Mirrorball trophy were dashed.

The Sex and the City actor was the first contestant eliminated from Dancing's 31st cycle, after his lackluster cha-cha with pro Peta Murgatroyd led the judges to save fellow Bottom Two dancer Teresa Giudice over Lewis. (Read our full premiere recap here.) But that still leaves 15 celebrities in the running to take Iman Shumpert's crown — and now that we've gotten a peek at each dancer's skill, it's time to make our Season 31 predictions.

In the list below, we've ranked the 15 remaining competitors in order of how likely we think they are to snag the Mirrorball. If you watched Monday's season premiere, you won't be all that surprised to find contestants like Giudice and Jersey Shore's Vinny Guadagnino near the bottom of our ranking, based on their weak debuts in the ballroom. Predicting a winner, though, has proven especially tricky, as the Season 31 roster includes seasoned performers like Let's Make a Deal's Wayne Brady, RuPaul's Drag Race's Shangela and American Idol winner Jordin Sparks.

New episodes of Dancing With the Stars stream live Mondays at 8/7c on Disney+. In the meantime, keep scrolling for our full Season 31 predictions, then drop a comment with your own!

Yeah, ranking Giudice at the bottom of our list feels like the obvious move. The Real Housewives of New Jersey star already found herself in the Bottom Two on premiere night, giving us an early idea as to how she's being received by voters at home. But even without that guidepost, we'd still predict an early ouster for Giudice: Real Housewives alumni have historically not fared well on Dancing With the Stars, and her Episode 1 tango left something to be desired.

From his years on Jersey Shore to a respectable run on Fox's The Masked Dancer, Guadagnino has proven he's not afraid to look a little silly on national television... but unfortunately, his messy Episode 1 salsa was less feel-good entertainment and more, "Oh, gosh, I can't watch this." Guadagnino did avoid the Bottom Two on premiere night, so he and newbie pro Koko Iwasaki clearly have at least a little support from viewers. But unless Guadagnino's handle on footwork and musical timing vastly improves, he could be out sooner rather than later.

Donovan divulged in the Season 31 premiere that he's genuinely afraid of dancing, which made his serviceable quickstep all the more impressive. That said, the actor's technique was a bit lacking, and his premiere night jitters made some of the movements a little herky-jerky. For a true shot at the Mirrorball, he'll need to become more grounded and self-assured; it's only a question of whether the voting audience will give him time to do so.

From a technical standpoint, Champion's Week 1 foxtrot with pro Cheryl Burke was decent, though at times a smidge stiff and uncertain; he also admittedly had the advantage of a slower and more elegant style, whereas something like the jive or salsa could be less forgiving. Having said that, Champion's attitude toward the entire experience is warm and open-minded, and his debut number made us eager to see the full extent of Champion's capabilities.

It's an unfortunate Dancing trend that women over the age of 50 tend to face early elimination — and yet, Ladd brought an ease and passion to her premiere cha-cha that indicated she's capable of much more than partner Louis van Amstel is currently giving her. Here's hoping the pair delivers more surprising, ambitious choreography in the weeks to come, otherwise Ladd could be at risk of going home too soon.

Charli D'Amelio's massive following will no doubt trickle down to her mom during Season 31, likely giving Heidi a cushion of safety from elimination as she establishes herself in the competition. Those votes could only get her so far, though: Heidi and pro Artem Chigvintsev still have their work cut out for them on the dance floor, where Heidi delivered a perfectly adequate — though not entirely memorable — debut cha-cha.

Despite advertising her dance skills as subpar, Decker ultimately exceeded our expectations with her Week 1 cha-cha — but in a sea of cha-chas that night, Decker and Alan Bersten's performance felt forgettable. (Their decidedly middle-of-the-road score, a 20 out of 40, reflects that, too.) The country music fanbase is a large and loyal one, so Decker will likely survive at least the first few eliminations. Beyond that, though, she and Bersten will need to find ways to stand out among this season's formidable competition.

Baena's Episode 1 jive was sorta fascinating to behold: Even though the bodybuilder/fitness model has a massive frame, he brought unexpected grace and a real respect for technique to the routine. Plus, we know better than to ever underestimate pro Daniella Karagach, who proved with last season's Mirrorball win that she can creatively choreograph to anyone's strengths, including six-foot-six basketball player Iman Shumpert. Provided Baena sticks around long enough to develop a solid fanbase, he could very well be this season's dark horse.

Durant, a deaf contestant, faces a unique set of challenges this season, from communication with his partner Britt Stewart to his reliance on musical vibrations. If nothing else, the CODA actor got off to a sensational start, completing his premiere tango without any evident timing issues. Here's hoping the trust between Durant and Stewart only grows; Durant clearly has a solid dancing foundation — and likely strong support from viewers — that we suspect could keep him in the competition for a long time.

Among the more well-known RuPaul's Drag Race alumni, Shangela has built quite the devoted following, and his Week 1 salsa with pro Gleb Savchenko was completely exuberant. Shangela is also the first drag queen to compete on Dancing With the Stars, a history-making milestone that will no doubt bolster support from the home audience. What remains to be seen, though, is how well he and Gleb will adapt to their same-sex partnership, which could bring new challenges to choreography. In Season 30, JoJo Siwa and Jenna Johnson did outstanding work together; will Shangela and Gleb achieve that same greatness?

Sparks may not have ballroom dance experience specifically, but she does possess a singer's sense of musicality and rhythm, and capably handled choreography during her stints in Broadway's In the Heights and Waitress. Plus, having won American Idol when she was just a teenager, Sparks understands the rigors and judgment of reality competitions better than most. After opening Dancing's season premiere with a confident, competent cha-cha, Sparks has exhibited serious potential that can only grow as the season continues.

Blair's decision to compete on Dancing With the Stars, despite the physical side effects she endures from multiple sclerosis, is deeply emotionally moving, as evidenced by her premiere night Viennese waltz that left everyone weeping. Dancing's home audience has always been one to champion contestants that are up against setbacks. Thus, Blair's longevity in Season 31 likely won't be hindered by lack of voter support or positive reinforcement from the judges; it may simply be a matter of how the actress' MS symptoms impact her on a given week, which remains an unpredictable factor.

There's a lot working in Windey's favor here: For one, Bachelor/ette alumni tend to be pretty well-supported by the voting audience, whether they're terrific (Kaitlyn Bristowe) or... not as much (Joe Amabile). In this case, judging only by her premiere night jive, Windey is much closer to the Bristowe side of the Dancing spectrum; it doesn't hurt that she's a particularly beloved member of Bachelor Nation, and partner Val Chmerkovskiy has a dedicated fanbase and impressive Dancing track record of his own — seven finale appearances and two Mirrorballs, to be exact. As Windey gets more comfortable on the dance floor, we see her making it quite far in the competition.

Raise your hand if, like us, you assumed Brady had already competed on DWTS before, perhaps in its early seasons. A versatile performer with oodles of experience both on stage and in front of a camera, the Whose Line vet just makes sense on this show, and his Episode 1 cha-cha confirmed our suspicions that ballroom dance would come naturally to him. Paired with Witney Carson — a well-liked, creative choreographer with four finale appearances and one Mirrorball win under her belt — Brady's longevity on Season 31 feels like a no-brainer.

D'Amelio comes to Season 31 with significant previous dance experience — an advantage that Dancing With the Stars viewers don't always appreciate. But surely the teenager's critics will be offset by her 147 million — I repeat: 147 million — TikTok followers, who have already helped catapult D'Amelio into the public consciousness. Plus, she's partnered with fan-favorite pro Mark Ballas (back after five seasons away), and the pair's premiere night cha-cha proved D'Amelio is an undeniable force on the dance floor. With her skill level and considerable fanbase, we think the Mirrorball is hers to lose.