Emmys 2019: Ausiello's Predictions

The 71st annual Primetime Emmy Awards air set for this Sunday and sources close to my totally trustworthy intuition tell me that there are a handful of surprises in store in the top races. And it will leave the showbiz community shook. Or I'll be eating vegan crow. One of those two things will happen. Read on for my fearless predictions in 15 key races.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA 

Better Call Saul
Bodyguard
Game of Thrones
Killing Eve
Ozark
Pose
Succession
This Is Us

WILL WIN: Game of Thrones

HERE'S WHY: Yes, the eighth and final season was a little rough around the edges (I'm being generous!), but the show was a once-in-a-lifetime television phenomenon, and the Academy is going to send it out in style.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Billy Porter, Pose
Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us

WILL WIN: Billy Porter, Pose

HERE'S WHY: Even if Emmy voters never watched a single episode of Pose, without question they heard or read about Porter's extraordinary work in the FX drama's inaugural season. Also, his acceptance speech will bring down the house, and the Academy knows it.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
Laura Linney, Ozark
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Robin Wright, House of Cards

WILL WIN: Jodie Comer, Killing Eve

HERE'S WHY: Her biggest competition in the category is co-star Sandra Oh, but Season 2 of Killing Eve belonged to Comer. 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA 

Gwendoline Christie, Game of Thrones
Julia Garner, Ozark
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve
Sophie Turner, Game of Thrones
Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones

WILL WIN: Gwendoline Christie, Game of Thrones

HERE'S WHY: Even angry Game of Thrones fans who demanded a complete reshoot of the final season would agree that there's at least one moment — Brienne's enormously satisfying knighting scene — that would be impossible to improve on. And that's largely due to Christie's performance in it. 

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA 

Alfie Allen, Game of Thrones
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
Chris Sullivan, This Is Us

WILL WIN: Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

HERE'S WHY: He's an Emmy darling, having already picked up three trophies for playing Tyrion. The odds are ever in his favor AND YES I KNOW THAT'S FROM A DIFFERENT FANTASY FRANCHISE BUT IT'S CLOSE ENOUGH.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY

Barry
Fleabag
The Good Place
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Russian Doll
Schitt's Creek
Veep

WILL WIN: Fleabag

HERE'S WHY: Good luck finding someone in Hollywood who hasn't seen and loved the Amazon comedy's flawless second season. Pundits will call the show's triumph over The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and Veep an upset, but, in reality, it's quite the opposite: It's the ceremony's one sure thing. 

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY 

Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll
Catherine O'Hara, Schitt's Creek
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag

WILL WIN: Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag

HERE'S WHY: I'd venture to guess that even perennial winner and current frontrunner Louis-Dreyfus voted for Waller-Bridge — that's how beloved her performance in Season 2 is.

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY 

Anthony Anderson, black-ish
Don Cheadle, Black Monday
Ted Danson, The Good Place
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Bill Hader, Barry
Eugene Levy, Schitt's Creek

WILL WIN: Bill Hader, Barry

HERE'S WHY: Much like Fleabag, the showbiz community is obsessed with this show and Hader's performance in it. He will be one of the evening's few repeat acting winners.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY 

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Sian Clifford, Fleabag
Olivia Colman, Fleabag
Betty Gilpin, GLOW
Sarah Goldberg, Barry
Marin Hinkle, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live

WILL WIN: Sian Clifford, Fleabag

HERE'S WHY: Because Fleabag is a love story... between two sisters. 

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY 

Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Tony Hale, Veep
Stephen Root, Barry
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Henry Winkler, Barry

WILL WIN: Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

HERE'S WHY: Three words: the romper scene.

LIMITED SERIES 

Chernobyl
Escape at Dannemora
Fosse/Verdon
Sharp Objects
When They See Us

WILL WIN: Chernobyl 

HERE'S WHY: In a duel between Chernobyl and When They See Us, the former has the edge (as evidenced by its strong showing last weekend at the Creative Arts Emmys).

LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE 

Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Aunjanue Ellis, When They See Us
Joey King, The Act
Niecy Nash, When They See Us
Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon

WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora

HERE'S WHY: Arquette's transformational turn in the Showtime mini is the stuff Emmys were made to honor. 

LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE 

Mahershala Ali, True Detective
Benecio del Toro, Escape at Dannemora
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Jared Harris, Chernobyl
Jharrel Jerome, When They See Us
Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon

WILL WIN: Jharrel Jerome, When They See Us

HERE'S WHY: Breakout performances don't get any more breakout-y than his. 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE 

Patricia Arquette, The Act
Marsha Stephanie Blake, When They See Us
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Vera Farmiga, When They See Us
Margaret Qualley, Fosse/Verdon
Emily Watson, Chernobyl

WILL WIN: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects

HERE'S WHY: The first rule of kudos prognosticating is: Never bet against Patricia Clarkson. 

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE 

Asante Blackk, When They See Us
Paul Dano, Escape at Dannemora
John Leguizamo, When They See Us
Stellan Skarsgard, Chernobyl
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Michael K Williams, When They See Us

WILL WIN: Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal

HERE'S WHY: Confession: I leaned on Goldderby for this one.